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Wednesday, August 10, 2011

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  • vdlrao
    07-18 08:19 PM
    this is not correct. ROW continues to get preference.
    what has changed is that for a while USCIS chose to interpret the law in a way that gave EB2 GC numbers (the law mandated 28.6%) to EB3 ROW rather than spill them over the EB2 I/C. now they have corrected that and EB2 numbers (which include any spillover from EB1) are first used in EB2 ie category numbers are given priority.

    so the bonus advantage that EB3 ROW got for 1-2 years has been withdrawn. however with EB3 retrogressed and with EB2 I/C retrogressed, EB3 ROW continues to get all EB3 numbers except the 7% each for the retrogressed nation states.

    i would also like to know where the 20K number is coming from if anyone has a source please share it.

    Hi Paskal,

    We dont have any official source of available visas for EB2 India as of now.
    But based on the information availale it seems there would be about 30k visas, which are about 10 times more than what its been now (3,267 VISAS for EB2 India), available for EB2 India. Even though China shares with us for these visas, it would be minimal for china sharing as because china had already a cutoff date of Jan 2006 by Jul 2007. EB2 India has to be current pretty soon as of the increase in visa numbers allotment to almost about 10 times due to the horizontal fallout.

    We need your inputs as well, on this calculation of estimated visas for EB2 India.



    .................................................. ...

    Originally Posted by sumagiri :

    There are some significant flaws in your analysis. If you correct them, the number comes to around 25K.

    First. The family spill over has to be applied to all categories. So the total number is 140,000 + 19,000.
    Second. You calculated EB1/2/3 gets 1/3 which is not correct. They use only 28.6% not 33.3% This makes difference.
    Third. The EB1+EB2 combined 70K already counted 9,800 visas for India. We should not add them again.

    According to USCIS/DOS testimonies they will usually end up using only 95% of total quota. They go conservatively because they must ensure that they won't use up even a single visa more than what law allows.So total available is approximately 159000*.95 = 151050
    Third. EB1, EB2, EB3 each will get 28.6%. Not one third (33.3%). That makes lot of difference. So each category will get around 43,200.
    EB4 and EB5 combined will get around 21,449

    Now again, going by statistics and your assumptions that EB1 and EB2 takes up 70K and EB4, EB5 takes up around 10K. The unused visas are

    ((43,200*2)+21,449) - (70,000+10000) = 27849.

    So the total EB2 visa usage will be around 70K + 25K =95K.


    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=20167&highlight=vdlrao&page=7





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  • qvadis
    02-13 06:44 PM
    Before AC21, the spill over goes vertically.
    After AC21, the spill over should go horizontally.

    Now ROW experts, post your comment for this hypothitical example ..

    Lets assume there are 100 unused visas in EB2 catagory in a calender quarter. Worldwide EB damand is more than 140,000. Now, how will you assisn those numbers if it is before AC21 period and if it is after AC21 period.

    If you say in both cases it goes to EB3-ROW, then we are not stupid to listien.

    (a) INA 202(a)(3) states that the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) [...] exceeds the number of qualified immigrants [...] (2) shall not apply [...]. In your case, there are no excess visas available for FB immigrants.

    (b) INA 202(e) Special Rules for Countries at Ceiling. requires that additional visas are distributed according to the world-wide distribution across FB and EB categories. Of the 100 unused visas 77 would have to be alloted to FB, and only 22 to EB categories. Assuming a 1/3 distribution in EB categories EB1, EB2, EB3, 7 would go to EB2.

    If USCIS cannot follow this rule, those 100 visas would be unused for that fiscal year.

    With AC21, the 100 can be assigned to oversubscribed countries, if Visas are available, ie. demand in all categories is less than supply. With EB3-ROW retrogressed, that is not the case.

    Just the way I see it....





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  • lazycis
    02-13 01:11 PM
    WDude, Googler, I am not against removing per country limits. But we need to have a cool head, think straight, objective and use facts. I just think it will be next to impossible to change the INA to remove those quotas so it's better to concentrate efforts on 1) visa recapture; 2) EB quota increase. Visas were lost mostly because of NC issue.





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  • vadicherla
    09-04 01:37 AM
    If you had a laugh on my post good for you. Should have given you some relief from YSR's death. I have been laughing, smiling and eating sweets since I knew the news.

    Conformed you brain got damaged and you will die soon.

    Will distribute sweets after you death



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  • lvinaykumar
    07-10 01:36 PM
    I have applied for my Canadian PR. once it comes close i am going to look for a job too. But i still have some time for that ....

    All the Best....





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  • okuzmin
    05-09 04:37 PM
    pmat, a word of caution and experience on FBI fingerprints/background checks.

    If you're submitting fingerprints for yourself and your spouse, make sure you have certified funds of $18 (I believe that's the correct amount, but I might be wrong) PER PERSON, i.e., $36 for two people. In the instructions they just say "$18 for the background check" and give you a form to list yourself and any other adults in your family. I had to call and confirm that it's $18 a person.

    They have a backlog of these background checks now; in the instructions it says the process takes up to 8 weeks, while nowadays it's up to 3 months and sometimes even longer.

    It might take about a year for the Canadian Consulate to process your first batch of documents. In my case, it took 11 months. Then they notified us that our interviews were waived. In the same letter they requested the following docs:


    updated letters of experience from my current employer;
    updated financial docs (tax returns, pay stubs, W2's, and bank funds confirmation);
    updated FBI certificates.


    It doesn't say anywhere in the instructions that your fingerprint cards are only good for 1 year. When I sent my "old" fingerprints (I had two sets of those made the first time we applied), FBI returned them unprocessed after 3 months and asked for the updated fingerprint cards. Then it took them another 2 months to process those.



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  • ronhira
    01-13 08:53 PM
    This will only increat outsourcing and actually hurt US economy and jobs...too bad that "blinded" politicians do not recognize this.

    they r blinded....... remember..... but they will recognize..... when most of the jobs are outsourced....





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  • sammyb
    02-13 02:41 PM
    and realizing the issue itself...

    we like the American citizens, live in a protectionist mode ... even if we are not getting benefitted but we still want to law in place as this gives some comfort in mind ...

    I would ask all those who are opposing the removal of per country cap - for one day only lets switch your shoes with someone who filed his labor in 00 or 01 and see how it feels ... then come here tomorrow and discuss this issue again from the beginning ... you need to feel it to realize the pain...

    it won't do any good by arguing against or for a cause which may or may not help you me or someone else ... the whole EB GC process is a mess and someone needs to exert the right push to make this correct ... at today�s date IV is the only organization doing that ... so join hands and do it together ... down the line after ten years you shouldn't feel that you have had the opportunity but you didn't do enough to take care of it...


    What ever gave you the idea that EB ROW only wait for 3 years? There's this common misconception flying around here that somehow ROW just cruises by and we get GC handed to us on a platter when in fact up until yesterday EB-3 ROW was just as retrogressed as any other category not to mention that labor (pre PERM) and name check delays affected ROW just as much as everyone else. For instance, my brother, who is EB3-ROW with a PD of Dec 2002... and has been in the US since early 2000 and is still waiting in line...so do the math.

    We're all in this crap together, some worse than others... so let's stop with this ROW Vs India & China nonsense. Country quotas are unfair and frankly the entire GC process is unfair and unpredictable... We should aim for solutions that solve this issue in a comprehensive way, not by dividing us even further.



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  • saketkapur
    07-04 12:29 PM
    Application for 1 person:

    1. Lawyers fees = $500...............paid by me....not sure if any paid by my company
    2. AP+EAD = $350(170+180).....paid by me
    3. I-485 = $395..........paid by company
    6. Fedex = $60...........paid by me
    7. Medical = $170(no shots needed except TB test)....paid by me


    So all i all I paid $1080 and my company paid atleast $395(and maybe some legal fees too)

    And belive me guys I am at the lower threshold since I did not need any shots and did not loose any work days........

    So minimum loss to the company and individual(1 pesron only)is atleast 1475 bucks. So before making any conclusions keep this as the lowest threshold.However since we might get the $395+$350 back so the net loss to the individual at minimum will be $730/person and maybe $500/person to the company so making it atleast $1230/for 1 person.

    Assuming that appx. 45000 people were planning to apply....I guess we are at minimum $55350000 loss......and this is a very modest estimate......as I mentioned at the lower threshold.





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  • vikki76
    05-13 07:17 PM
    RE: Jaime,
    Well, I am not sure of your reason..but whatever, if you are serious, then join any major tech company in US, and ask them to relocate to India.Cisco,Intel,Sun Microsystems, Accenture,Citibank etc. are always on look out for expatriate.
    If you won't join tech company,and explore for direct employment then max pay you might get is Rs 15 Lakh per annum. or 15,000,00.
    If you are an airline pilot,you will be welcome by open arms.Aviation sector is facing huge shortage.



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  • coolngood4u80
    01-14 11:37 AM
    If you don't believe what IV does, why are you wasting your time here....I see that you are totally jobless....





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  • sumagiri
    10-07 04:47 PM
    I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model

    Making following assumption

    15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
    12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
    EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)


    EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
    Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
    Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
    Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
    Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
    Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
    Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
    Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
    Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
    Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007

    Sachug, it is a great attempt to compare the quarterly and annual spill overs. I made rough calculations couple of weeks ago with annual spill over. However, I assumed around 25K ROW visas(both pending and new) for EB2. And assumed only aroudn 125K for AOS keeping 15K for CP. I will compile all of my assumptions and post here. Overall, my calcs estimated EB2 move to Dec 2006. By the way, I hope you took China in to consideration for spill over.



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  • lazycis
    02-15 11:52 AM
    Thanks for an excellent research and arguments. Some of the arguments are well presented.

    Well, if you are not ready to lead and we do not have anyone else to lead then whats the point of forming the yahoo group? Please don't get me wrong, I am just trying to find out the objective of this yahoo group.

    The purpose was to jump start and find somebody who is willing to help himself/herself. If there is no such person out of 100+ who voted "yes", there is no point in further discussion. I have enough on my plate (I am still helping a number of people fighting in district an appellate courts). Also I think it's easier to discuss it via yahoo group.





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  • snthampi
    08-02 11:15 PM
    One of the things that I've observed about these 'IBO's is that most often they are underachievers in general. Mostly staying home over the weekends, hardly any communication skills, no good friends (no your IBO partners are not your friends), low confidence and plain arrogance. They are asked not to take NO for an answer. So anything that you say against them annoys the hell outta them. I know I should not be using such derogatory language against any person but I seriously feel this corporation is plaguing our society big time.

    I have a co-worker who downs at least 5-6 cans of their flagship product 'XS Energy Drink' everyday. He hardly moves from his desk all day so why in the world would he need an energy drink for? One day, the rest of the team confronted him and asked him if he even knew what was in the energy drink. He quickly got angry and snapped back "VITAMINS!!!". We were like WTF? Since when did energy drinks started to have vitamins in them? Finally, I showed him the contents of the drink: #1 Taurine, #2 Caffeine. So it's nothing but fukking Red Bull. And we all know 'Red Bull gives you wings!'. Wish it gave you brains too.

    Another co-worker asked him if it'd be OK to give that drink to his 5 yo when he thought that it was alright for him to gulp gallons of it. He snapped again saying "OF COURSE! In fact she drinks small quantities of it everyday." A 5 year old kid drinking Red Bull. Can you beat that? Just coz this idiot wants to earn more points. That is when I got seriously pissed!

    Is it true that this guys makes his 5 year old kid drink something like Red Bull everyday? If it is true, that is inhuman and child abuse. I can't believe it. Can people go this low for money? Unbelievable.



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  • srinivasj
    07-27 04:50 PM
    I want some Amway Joker to say that they don't do this kind of cheap and dirty things...... if you make so much money then why bother others.

    well the only way Ponzi schemes work is with new members/new money coming in ..just like madoff scam...





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  • bigboy007
    06-13 12:35 PM
    One things for sure, we cant clear all the problems EB Community is facing in one shot. Agreed that EB Visa recapture will help temporarily but that helps a lot , Still the movement should go on either on country cap or something that would eliminate backlog. But one thing for sure if we keep debating that we need all in one shot its not going to happen. One can keep complaining that i am ahead of many of others but think analytically, we dont enjoy a great support either in house or senate, getting a simple legislation or getting our cause on CIR is itself a big thing here.

    Outsourcing is going to happen or not its a different story. US has shifted 99% of it manufacturing jobs, if all admin , it jobs are going to go away where does the money come from to run this country ? Eitherways it is going to happen more in recession, but how is that going to effect our outlook in this discussion ?



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  • lahiribaba
    06-12 09:56 AM
    Dude, Read Vivek Wadhwas findings carefully. He wants the best and the brightest to be provided unlimited visas. I agree with him completely. He is not for perpetual fraud and wage destruction as proferred by the outsourcing companies. Next time when you quote a defence, atleast quote something that supports your case not the opponent's :-)

    You all can scream and shout all you want but

    NOTHING IS GONNA STOP THE OFFSHORE OUTSOURCING TRAIN THATS ROLLING ROLLING ROLLING>>>>>>>>>

    BECAUSE.>>>>>>>>>

    OF THE SHEER SIZE OF INDIA'S POPULATION.....

    10 YEARS FROM NOW IF YOU ARE IN IT YOUR BOSS WILL BE SITTING IN INDIA





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  • dilipcr
    06-16 03:41 PM
    Nice well thought out arguments. This is the essence of a healthy debate.

    Dilip -

    Could you please respond to questions raised in my post, when you get a chance?


    I would like to add one more thing here - Employment based immigration is not merit based, it is driven by employer-employment unless you self-petition in Eb1/Eb2.

    For the most part it is if it were left to market forces. Employers, rationally, would only want as much as talent for the price they pay. Most importantly, employers would be willing to go the extra mile to sponsor green cards only if they perceive that the immigrant employee would add value both in the present and the future. Now again, when I say employers, I mean the genuine employers and not the fly by night consulting body shops or the outsourcing companies. I strongly believe that EB based GC for a very large part is built on merit. You may see sme cases wherein some ordinary people getting green cards. They, in my opinion , are mostly from these body shops who got "lucky". Cant believe I am using that word !!!.

    You may be very much qualified, if there is no employer who is ready to sponsor your green card, you are out of luck, so please do not put argument that only best and qualified people get GC.

    Employers will be restricted in applying for GC for very qualified employees only in the period of recession. This happened with companies like CSCO etc in2001. wherein many of my friends left the company because cisco was barred from applying for GC after mass layoffs. But then after a year or so they started applying again. If you are referring to such scenarios, I would recommend patience because the immigrant per se is extremely well talented.

    I don't think it matters, but I am from college based in Kharagpur WB.

    In my opinion it does not. But be careful in this forum though. People may view your statement as egotistic.
    Have a good day!




    Where did you get that 80k number? You think 80k is good salary for that job, someone else may say 65k, I may say 90k. The salary, among other things, is determined by market forces. If you can't find enough people with xyz then company will be forced to offer more.

    As long as there are people who are ready to work on salary 52k (example), employer will not pay 70k. As long as employer is following all the legal requirements, no one can dictate salary for the job.

    I agree that the employer will pay the salary that is cosummate with the market. No well meaning employer will undercut to save a few pennies at the risk of losing out on quality.
    What if the market pay scales are distorted through pervasive fraud ? If you look at it from an employer's view, it gets murkier. Believe it or not, low cost always signal lower quality. Trust me this is marketing 101. Google low cost and the perceptive signals. It is truly tough for the employer to trust the low cost employee's skillset.

    Now the distortion comes into play when outsourcing companies flout rules and undercut the market through pervasive fraud. Like other industries such as manufacturing/agriculture etc, IT wages are destined to decline but not at this rate. The acceleration in the decline of wages is perpetuated by these scum outsourcing companies. If the decline in wages were let to decline at the speed of market, then it gives talented people time to upgrade skills or move to other industries without having to sacrifice quality of living. So per your argument, yes the end employer is following the rules by employing people from the outsourcing company because the employer does not know or looks the other way of the outsourcing company commiting pervasive fraud. Oh BTW that 80K number was just to highlight that the L1s should be paid high too. It was not based on any scientific or statistical evidence.


    I am a US citizen of Indian origin with background in Computer Science, Finance, and Business Laws. I have been in this country for 11+ years and I have seen so many changes in tech world. Nobody talks of sign-on bonus on H1B anymore. I am dot net architect and I am seeing lot of competition for jobs and this is causing downtrend pressure on salary. But, instead of, blaming someone else for the competition, I am taking it head on. We need to keep working on our skillset and employer will pay the salary. Like they say, for the right candidate salary is not a constraint.

    I agree with you on the above points. You are doing the right thing in not blaming others for the downtrend in salaries. However, you are fundamentally assuming that you would have enough time to upgrade and adapt. What if that assumption falls apart ? What if outsourcign companies hit your employer with people with your skillsets at abysmal prices through fraud ? Today many companies do not look into the long term but make short term decisions. They may prefer the loss in quality for the "immediate" cost savings. It may take time for them to realize their follies. In trading, they say that a trader needs to have enough juice to survive the market irrationality. In a similar vein, if you have the wherewithal to survive the employer's short term irrational decisions, then more power to you.

    Let us not forget our struggling days of H1. The least, we can do, is to encourage our fellow immigrants who are waiting for their green cards.

    That is exactly the reason I am here. I want to encourage the truly deserving. I dont know who the truly deserving are on this board. But they know themselves. My encouragement is for them is to ensure that they dont get bogged psychologically despite being immensely talented.

    .





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  • gopalkrishan
    08-03 03:17 PM
    Hi All,

    First of all .. I am not an IBO or anything, but after being approached many a times, I decided to look up what the hell it was .. Attended a couple of their business meetings, researched and found out that upline groups like BWW had subverted the original business model..

    Amway business model is that 1) you sell products to others you get the difference between the IBO price you get and the price you sell the product at... 2) Based on total volume you get a specific share.
    In above model the share you get from volume is not major unless you have a lot of People under you. The main money comes from retailing the product.

    BWW model: The uplines put a lot of pressure not only on getting the folks in, but stress the importance of books/cds, motivational products. They want you to have standing(recurring) order for books/cds and want you to pressure people under you to do that too .. The bulk "profit" comes from these. Amway has nothing to do with these books/cds. Amway has nothing to do with the seminars or business meetings, but your uplines push you to attend "as many meetings as possible" because profits from these also go to them .. Based on the consumption and volume of these additional items under you, a share of these profits may trickle down ..

    When Uplines talk about making money they don't tell you that you are expected to do more than Amway model .. With Amway model, if you simply retail the products (NOT RECRUIT) then that should be enough (difference between IBO and retail price is YOURS).. People do buy stuff; couple of my friends have a repeat order with an Amway guy, for some vitamins sold through amway.. Anyways, Uplines force people to recruit so they have more people to target their motivational products to.

    The red flag for me was (i may have misunderstood) .. The checks don't come directly to you .. Comes to top chain, they take their share and write out checks for lower down the line and so on and so forth (PLEASE CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG)..

    Anyways .. Amway for me is a subverted business by corrupt people.. Big Lies and false promises :)


    Cheers





    lazycis
    02-12 10:06 PM
    :confused:I apologize for my ignorance but
    what is ROW ??

    A row — also called a record or tuple—represents a single, implicitly structured data item in a table :) (I think the discussion becomes too hot, time to cool down, folks. The solution is not to remove per country limits, but to increase EB quota or at least to recapture lost visa numbers. Fight for removing per country limits will divide IV and is very unlikely to achieve something.)





    at0474
    12-14 05:41 PM
    What if only few countries ONLY can supply the required skilled labor sufficiently and no other countries countries can?

    Then the numbers get distributed among those few countries that produces required skilled labor. To some extent, I thought this is already happening!!:rolleyes:



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